TOC Idea Explanations
Effect-Cause-Effect: we want to know the cause of a problem. We guess a cause and check whether it could work by considering which other effects that cause would also produce. We predict those effect then test them against reality. If the predictions don’t match with reality then there’s a problem without our proposed change. Either the cause can’t be true, we didn’t understand the effects of the cause or something else interfered and caused a different effect to happen.
Have people estimate the time needed for a 50% chance to finish their task on time, not a 90% chance. A 90% or higher chance of finishing on time is what people use when they’re adding a margin of error to the time estimate for their individual task,
So we need less chance for a big task or the whole project because it has a higher chance of good and bad luck to balance out. The individual tasks more often have big variances, so we have to account for huge setbacks. Whereas big compound tasks have some individual tasks that had really bad luck, but also some other tasks with good luck to balance out. So if on the whole there was bad luck it usually won’t be as extreme.
and a 50% chance of finishing on time means no margin of error for that task.
I don’t understand why there wouldn’t be any margin of error. Wouldn’t no margin of error mean something where you think you have 1% chance of finishing on time, which is when everything goes perfect?
For production, put safety buffers at bottlenecks, not at each individual step.
For inventory management, put buffers
Where would you put buffers for a software development project? Maybe for some really key library functions that will help the rest of the development? Maybe that’s too small scale?
Where would you put buffers for a grammar project? Maybe just the overall time and energy you think the whole project should take?
Critical Fallibilism has something to add about buffers. They’re connected with the concept of error correction.
I don’t understand what CF or error correction adds here. Isn’t spare resources already a part of buffers?
A drummer synchronizes many people like in a marching band. Another example is using a drum so that many rowers on a boat can pull their oars in sync.
That kind of sounds like a balanced plant because every station would output the same.
But I think the point is to minimize variance and make a sign to correct errors according to. If someone fell behind in the marching, and let’s say he’s blind too, he wouldn’t continue in the original pace, he would speed up for the next beat in order to match the drum.
That’s like a station that fell behind having excess capacity to make up for what it underproduced.
If everyone marched at maximum marching speed then when someone fell slightly behind due to variance they would never catch up (without running instead of marching).
Synchronization as in a balanced plant is a bad idea and actually gets unsynchronized because of variation. But synchronization is desired and can work when we have one bottleneck and excess capacity elsewhere.
A rope can tie hikers together so they don’t spread out. In the hike in The Goal, they put the slowest kid in front and said no one is allowed to pass him, which achieved a similar result without tying any kids with ropes. Similarly, don’t release raw materials onto the factory floor, to be worked on, faster than the constraint (the slow guy or bottleneck work station) can keep up with.
The rope restricts. It tells you to halt production. The drum tells you to speed up, the rope tells you to slow down.