I had another thought about how you do not need to adjust all of your views wholesale.
This seems like a reasonable concern that you should think about. No need to rush into a conclusion.
By contrast, this seems not very well-thought out, and tribal.
Trump disallowing all trans women in all women’s sports seems very anti-liberal to me. Many forms of sports in the US are private organizations. Even those that are not private are often run at local or state levels, such as high schools. Also, sex differences change across ages.
Even if you feel that e.g. trans women should not compete at top level professional/Olympic women’s sports, does that mean that trans teenagers should also be disallowed from competing in middle school or high school sports? What about private recreational leagues? Why do all of these sports need to have their rules dictated by the federal executive branch?
The reason is because of bigotry. Because Trump supporters see trans people as disgusting freaks who need to be punished for their abnormal behavior until they conform with mainstream gender roles. So even if “no trans people in pro sports” might not be a bigoted anti-trans position, Trump’s ban on trans people in women’s sports actually is anti-trans IMO.
Also, Trump has done much worse than that to trans people via executive orders. He has kicked people out of the military without proper cause, attacked gender affirming care, and more.
I think it is interesting that you seem to feel strongly about this and have a good idea of what the most extreme (and rare) online trans activists are saying about their rights, but you are ignorant of what the actual US government is saying and doing about those rights.
That seems like a big weird disconnect, to me. Well, weird in that I think it is foolish and illogical. It’s not unusual, though, I think the overwhelming majority of right and center right people with anti-trans views are in a similar situation as you.
If someone with a trans flag in their profile posts an aggressively worded tweet and calls you a transphobe, that is alarming and upsetting. If the president strips rights from thousands of trans Americans, that’s not really something worth paying attention to.
It might be a boy who cried wolf situation. Even if they were wrong to say their rights were under attack before, that may not be wrong now.
Also, I am curious: how do you feel about the violence from the right? Do you have a sense that one “side” is more violent right now? Is this something you have looked into much?