Early Conceding While Reading and Not Starting Discussions

I’ve seen Elliot mentioning early conceding a couple of times. he says people claim to change their mind when they don’t have enough knowledge to change their mind. they don’t understand the issues well enough.
example (first PDF) (typed in by me):

I don’t think you understand most of the problems with the guessing method, or how to recognize when it’s used. I don’t think I explained it very fully. And you say you agree without having questions to get more info about it. But all I really said so far is that it’s bad (my initial position). That shouldn’t change your mind. But then without questions you claim to change your mind. This is an issue I call early conceding. It’s hard to deal with because when people agree with stuff, it mostly prevents discussion, so it prevents them from getting more inf and being persuaded.

this has to apply to reading as well. people (and me) read and nod their heads. instead they should write down questions to ask. they should consider whether they actually have enough knowledge to consider their mind changed. people probably think they learned more from reading than they actually did. they’re not aware of what they didn’t understand because they have too low standards for their knowledge.

do people usually have more accurate views of their knowledge on a topic when they disagree with what they read? like if they disagreed that’s because they have reasons to disagree? hmm, no, I don’t think that’s necessarily true. people also disagree because familiarity with opposing ideas, tribalism, and emotions etc.. I don’t know the distribution for agreed vs disagreed, but the case where you agree is worse than when you disagree because then you won’t bring it up and the error won’t get corrected. that only counts for people who bring up disagreements and tell about criticisms they have.

I already know that I should bring up disagreements. I think this shows me that I should be more vary of potential misunderstandings I have when I think I’m agreeing with what I’m reading.

I remember Elliot having talked about people nodding their heads while reading and actually not understanding much.

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This reminded me very much of a Fallible Ideas Podcast episode I listened to just yesterday entitled How To Learn Philosophy. I decided to write about it to help me remember the lesson (I’m not sure if I should’ve posted this here tho).

Here’s a relevant quote from 8:30 of the podcast btw (quote copied from the YouTube transcript. I added a bit that the auto transcriber missed in square brackets):

if you read a book um your expectation should be that you understood say 10 [percent] of it if you felt like you understood it if you felt really confused and stuff then maybe you understood one percent but if it went pretty well um ten percent you missed most of it you didn’t get most of it there’s just reading it through is not enough

In my own mind I filed that as The 10% Rule to help me remember it.

Here’s some other quotes from that same podcast episode (also copied from the YouTube transcript):

From 43:29:

if you’ve read the book you don’t understand it very well

Or, like he said in the previous quote: “your expectation should be that you understood say 10 [percent] of it”

From 44:07:

you have to be very careful of books um and of being really careful about how much you’re actually understanding and how much you think you’re understanding and trying not to get a false impression that because that false impression is one of the things that discourages people from asking for help for asking questions for okay here’s what i think it said and this is my understanding is there anything wrong with this at all


Some extra thoughts:

While listening to the podcast I initially found this bit surprising (copied from the YouTube transcript):

basically to learn it all by yourself and correct all your own mistakes you would have to be pretty much as good of a thinker as the author that you’re reading […] if you want to understand karl popper’s philosophy and you have no help from other people you’re just reading the books by yourself you have to be pretty much as good as karl popper […] yes the books give you some help you know they’re they’re an advantage a leg up but they’re not that much of an advantage

Like I would’ve thought reading Popper’s books gives you quite a bit more than “not that much of an advantage”.

But then I thought of it in terms of Rand (who I’m more familiar with): virtually no one who has read Rand is as good as Rand herself.

Or, another way to think of it could even be in terms of like an interview. Virtually no one who has read Rand would be able to give answers in an interview that are anywhere near as good as what Rand would have given (e.g., in her Mike Wallace interview or Columbia University radio station interviews). Why? Cuz despite reading Rand and listening to her etc they’re still nowhere near as good as her and still don’t understand the material anywhere near as well as her.

And ofc they don’t live lives or do work that’s as great as hers.

Or using Elliot’s content as the example. Even though I’ve read a fair bit of his stuff I obviously wouldn’t be able to come anywhere near close to writing stuff (or recording podcasts like this one) that are even a tiny bit as good as his.

So yeah, now I think of it, I’m def more convinced that Elliot was right about “just reading the books by yourself” being “not that much of an advantage”.

Some of my takeaways from the podcast episode:

  • just reading books is nowhere near enough

  • people massively underestimate how many mistakes they’re making

  • learning something really well requires huge amounts of discussion & feedback

  • having huge amounts of discussion works better if you can write informally, quickly, easily (just like you’d discuss at an IRL study group—which reminds me of Elliot’s Write How You Speak advice)

  • do this discussion in public and as you go along (rather than after you’ve already finished reading the whole book)


Also, maybe it’s a bit of a tenuous connection, but in another Fallible Ideas Podcast episode that I listened to yesterday entitled Motivation and Laziness he talked about how (quoting the YouTube transcript again) “if you can’t do something when you’re tired that means you’re not very good at it your skill level is a bit too low” (from 4:04). Also:

From 6:29:

but even if they could just barely do it that’s not good enough you need to get to the point where you can more than do it so that there’s a spare capacity to deal with errors and random variants and setbacks and so on

From 7:20:

so people uh they think they can do things like before they actually are able to

I feel like that’s a kind of a similar point to The 10% Rule in that in both cases I feel like the point is that learning something really well takes way way way more work than most people realize.

Like when most people think they’re done learning a book or a skill, they’re probably only 10% done learning.

Or, to go back to what ActiveMind originally said:

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I found that surprising too.

This seems different than with physics. It looks like the next generation of physicists build way more effectively on the past. And I would assume they can more effectively learn from books than people learn from philosophy books. But there aren’t really as many great physicists now like there was in the 50’s. Also, most Nobel laureates form a tight mentorship cluster, which suggests discussion is way more effective than just books. Maybe I’m overestimating how much people learn from physics books?

Yep. Another way we can look at it is that out of all the people who read Popper and didn’t get to speak with Popper only Deutsch could extend CR and connect it with other areas.

I think I still might underestimate how much it takes to master philosophy stuff.

If you write as much as I have so far (including the private discussions with Deutsch and many others), and you’re about an equally fast learner as me, then maybe you could reach where I am now. But so far you’ve only written around 1% as much as me? Definitely under 10%.

You get an advantage from reading my essays, but if you’re not as clever or fast-learning as me or you only write half as much, that could use up your advantage.

Of course, you can still learn a bunch and use it in your life and share it with others without reaching mastery or similarity to 2025 Elliot. And you can achieve mastery of some sub-parts with much less effort.

It could be well below 1%.

I’ve clocked in ~1.13k hours of philosophy since I started tracking 3 years ago (I had a 7 month period of lost data as well). That includes journaling and reading (reading philosophy specifically).

I think you’ve said you didn’t learn very systematically with Deutsch, that it was more free form. So I could get another advantage there. I still guess you were smarter starting out than I am. So I’ll have to at least put in as much effort as you if I want to reach your level.

I would like to contribute to philosophy, but I would happy with applying it to life and helping with Paths Forward for example.

It would be second-handed to measure success as how close I get to Elliot. But I could look at what Elliot or someone else achieved and think about what’s possible for humans to achieve. If I’m realistic with myself it can tell what I can expect and then I can think whether that would be worth it. I would have to judge the risk this project has and judge how much I want to sacrifice (it’s really a beneficial trade if I think it’s worth the risk). From there on I can only do my best and be satisfied if I did do my best.

The thing is I’m not satisfied with how much I’ve done so far. I think my main problem is productivity/procrastination.

That’s over 1% but under 10% on time spent.

Yes.

I don’t have issues with philosophy procrastination. I think that’s important but I don’t know how many people don’t.

You’re comparing against your first 3 years right?

My philosophy procrastination is better, but far from non-existent. My uni studying procrastination interferes with philosophy because philosophy takes mental energy and if I’m gonna do something mentally tiring I should do studying because that’s more urgent, but I don’t want to study so I do nothing productive, which is really bad.

No, I was comparing to all my years. There’s no way I’m over 100,000 hours in around 25 years. So your over 1,000 hours is over 1%.

I didn’t procrastinate on schoolwork much. Even when I didn’t like it, I usually did it quickly to get it over with.

Yes. I didn’t think it through. I underestimated how much 100,000 hours is, which is almost 11 hours a day in 25 years.

I know that’s the rational thing to do. Or maybe I don’t really know since I don’t do it.

I want to reply to the orginal post but im dealing with health anxiety stuff rn

Community college is different than uni, but I’ve been using philosophy to do my hw there. Like, I use postmortem to get better at reading or doing math problems. It’s been fun cuz it gives me a good reason to do the hw. Otherwise, my other reason to do it is stay busy and to not overthink stuff.

I wonder wat you already do thats philosophy related on a regular basis

That’s an interesting point or way of thinking about it. Idk about physics specifically, but what you said reminds me of people observing that technological progress is way more rapid and substantial than spiritual/moral/intellecfual/philosophical progress. And it’s an area where people seem to build way more effectively on the past, e.g., going from Edison’s lightbulb to modern TV screens and going from the Wright flyer to the Boeing 747 and also Moore’s law. I don’t know why that is.

Thanks for sharing that about the Nobel laureates. I didn’t know that. It reminded me of Bloom’s 2 sigma problem which (from what I’ve heard) is about how students who received full-time one-on-one tutoring massively outperformed students who just had a regular classroom education. Presumably because the tutored students got way more feedback (and got that feedback immediately whenever they made a mistake) vs the students who just have to quietly watch a teacher from the back of a large classroom.

Have you seen this old Fallible Ideas Discussion email by Elliot? I’ll paste it below.

[…]

Though, at 10min/post, 37 emails is around 6hrs/day. Well, I do in fact put in that kind of time and effort (but a lot is directed at tasks other than emailing). If you (anyone here, not Brett personally) put in 1/6th of that sort of effort (1/hr day, which most people here don’t do either), what do you expect to happen? Do you think you’re 6x smarter than me, and a 6x faster learner?

For years, I used to talk with DD in the ballpark of 6 hours most days, on and off, while also writing posts and stuff (and i worked on philosophy a bunch when he was offline too). Now I read more twitter and stuff instead. sad. and the change has hurt DD far more than me – cuz I was bringing the substantial majority of the initiative, energy, optimism and vitality. DD doesn’t have a good enough sense of life, he was getting a transfusion from me but now he’s fucked.

maybe i’m a genius, maybe not, but i want people to know **i put in the work**. whatever “natural talent” i may or may not have, i’ve been working harder than you at philosophy, so don’t make any damn excuses. you could do the work too. besides, philosophy work is the most fun i’ve ever had. (and no i was not handed plenty of time and money for this on a silver platter.)

i’m the one single person whose posting volume is constrained by the amount of posts to reply to. if there were more, i’d post more. and you have to also try to understand that i don’t turn off. i don’t get drunk or high and chill. i don’t go to social gatherings and try to fit in and turn off my critical thinking. when i do other stuff, like e.g. gaming, i do it well and seriously – i play to win and learn a lot about the game i’m playing. that is philosophy practice. it matters. applying and using philosophy stuff makes a huge difference. when i watch TV (with the speed increased so the information/time fits my abilities better), i learn things, sometimes i write things – i’m ready at any moment to notice something interesting and perhaps pause and write a blog post. that shows you something about how integrated philosophy is into my life – so my whole life is productive.

that is the sort of life possible to man, and fitting for man – and that is what getting philosophy issues right takes. when you fuck them up, it’s not cuz you’re too dumb, and don’t even blame your static memes. put in more effort. if you’re dumb and have static memes, then outwork me!! it’s your life!! what the fuck else are you going to do with it? suck?

[…]

AFAIK Elliot’s the only living person who’s worked that hard on philosophy.

Have you considered working that hard? (I haven’t really thought about it seriously—whether I should commit to philosophy that much I mean. Maybe I should give it some serious thought. Or I could work my way up to it and see how I like it at each step.)

Starting around 3:20 in Elliot’s podcast episode entitled Motivation and Laziness, one of the reasons for “laziness” he describes is doing stuff that’s too hard when they should be starting with easier things and building up their skill level until stuff that used to be hard is now easy as well. Reminds me of the Do Primarily Easy Things advice.

So maybe if you’re tempted to procrastinate you could ask yourself if there is some easier philosophy thing you could do that’s easy enough that maybe you don’t feel tempted to procrastinate on it. (I’ll give this advice a try myself :slight_smile: . Like if I feel tempted to do some brainrot doomscroll type stuff I’ll ask myself if there’s some super duper easy philosophy stuff I can do instead.)

I don’t mean to be presumptuous but I wonder if regarding it as “mentally tiring” might indicate that Elliot’s do primarily easy things type advice from his Motivation and Laziness podcast episode might be helpful.

You’ll like what the same blogger has to say about private/aristocratic tutoring then. Elliot has linked to it before (direct link to essay).

I like that email. I found it inspiring. I’ve gotten the same sentiment elsewhere, but it was cool to read how he has philosophy so tightly integrated into his life for example. Thanks for sharing!

Yes, and I think I should. Since around I found Elliot I’ve thought I should exhaust my mental energy each day and put it towards programming and philosophy, but I haven’t done that.

I’ve been blaming my static memes. I think really should just put in more effort and be more persistent.

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I’m familiar with the overreaching material, but I think I haven’t taken it seriously enough. I’ve been thinking that I maybe should do a gaming project to learn how to master things. Curiosity – Learning to Mastery and Repetition

the best thing to master, in general, for practice, is a video game.

I told Erik Hoel that I had a decade of one-on-one help from David Deutsch, so I was somewhat of a modern example, and I could answer questions about it and discuss. He wasn’t interested in speaking with me.

Please note I meant best by a little, not by a lot. If you like video games, go for it. If you don’t, something else might work better.

Video games are fun, popular, have well-defined rules/physics, and are frequently designed in practice-friendly ways (e.g. you can die, respawn, and quickly/easily try again, and it being on a computer often allows savestates and creating tools to make practice more convenient even if the built-in options aren’t great). Because video games use simulations instead of the real world, they tend to be cheap, convenient, and avoid lots of dangers and difficulties that real-world activities have. This has upsides and downsides but if you care about learning methodology then it tends towards upsides because it’s simplified away from the distracting complexity of a lot of real world activities. It’s a little like how people use simplified hypothetical scenarios for philosophy discussions.

Did he say why?

No.