Odd? Because you think I normally wouldn’t have made that mistake or because it’s a short video or…? I’m mostly curious.
You’re right though: I did misremember it. And I didn’t rewatch the whole thing closely.
I don’t think it’s much of a mystery how this happened. These are the factors I think were at play:
- multiple topics in a short space of time + context switching
- rushing a bit (I had some things to do any wanted to get replies out)
- focusing more on exposing the current state of my mind/ideas rather than arguing about what is true
- chain of events was like: writing something > remember thing > write about thing (1/2) > search yt > quick verification > write second half > move on.
I’m not sure if I’ve explicitly mentioned it anywhere, but my goal of late is mostly exposure, not arguing/debating.
It’s related to this:
Yes, though she doesn’t really explain why she was wrong (all romance is self serving, so an action being self serving doesn’t exclude it from being romantic; and pragmaticness feels orthogonal).
She does end with an implication/accusation of dishonesty towards the then-boyfriend which I think is not unfair in general. I think it’s not unfair because people broadly will often choose framing so that the individual parts are true (“I’ve got you babe”, “I really care about you”) but obscure their motivation (don’t want a kid). Her accusation can’t be a big indictment though because, if it were, it’d imply he was working against her interests, and clearly it seems like she though the abortion was in her interest.
Not for the amount of sex she has access to (and presumably takes advantage of, or has done, to some degree).
But also, I never said that I think Lily uses abortion as first-line contraception.
I’m not sure, but if the comments are a problem, then the left are just as bad or worse (for different issues), so this whole discussion is moot. The 5 abortions in and of themselves aren’t that much of an issue, it’s more the attitude.
I checked with claude what to expect assuming 100x instances of sex/yr over 20 years:
Note: E[preg] means the expected number of pregnancies, P(≥1) means the chance of falling pregnant 1 or more times.
Pregnancy outcomes over 20 years of continuous use:
Method Use Annual E[preg] P(≥1)
---------------------------------------------------------------
None typical 85.0% 17.000 100.0%
None perfect 85.0% 17.000 100.0%
Withdrawal typical 22.0% 4.400 99.3%
Withdrawal perfect 4.0% 0.800 55.8%
Male condom typical 13.0% 2.600 93.8%
Male condom perfect 2.0% 0.400 33.2%
Diaphragm typical 17.0% 3.400 97.6%
Diaphragm perfect 16.0% 3.200 96.9%
Combined pill typical 7.0% 1.400 76.6%
Combined pill perfect 0.3% 0.060 5.8%
Patch typical 7.0% 1.400 76.6%
Patch perfect 0.3% 0.060 5.8%
Ring typical 7.0% 1.400 76.6%
Ring perfect 0.3% 0.060 5.8%
Depo-Provera typical 4.0% 0.800 55.8%
Depo-Provera perfect 0.2% 0.040 3.9%
Copper IUD typical 0.8% 0.160 14.8%
Copper IUD perfect 0.6% 0.120 11.3%
Hormonal IUD typical 0.2% 0.040 3.9%
Hormonal IUD perfect 0.2% 0.040 3.9%
Implant typical 0.1% 0.020 2.0%
Implant perfect 0.1% 0.020 2.0%
Female sterilization typical 0.5% 0.100 9.5%
Female sterilization perfect 0.5% 0.100 9.5%
Male sterilization typical 0.1% 0.030 3.0%
Male sterilization perfect 0.1% 0.020 2.0%
Stacked methods (typical use, independence assumed):
Condom + Withdrawal → annual 2.86%, E[preg] over 20y = 0.572
Condom + Pill → annual 0.91%, E[preg] over 20y = 0.182
I was surprised that typical condom use performed so poorly, and the 5 abortions seems more reasonable now.
Oh also note: claude first produced a table without any working, so I asked it to make a python script instead, which is what generated this output.